[Money-matters] Money Update Oct 19 2008

Sun Oct 19 23:42:49 UTC 2008

ING      the biggest Dutch financial-services firm, will get 10 billion 
euros ($13.4 billion) from the Netherlands after warning Oct. 17 of its 
first quarterly loss and falling the most in Amsterdam trading since 1991.

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea will guarantee $100 billion in bank 
debts and supply lenders with $30 billion in dollars to stabilize its 
financial markets.

_/*Marc's Notes:*/_
More money into the banks worldwide.  More bailout money and more 
"stimulus" by the idiots in Congress will certainly drive our deficit 
into the stratosphere.
Inflation WILL arise and with a vengeance eventually. This will force 
metals and gold and silver and OIL UP.  In the case of oil, OPEC might 
do it for us shortly.
Oil has a limited downside right now, like silver does and either may be 
a good way to go at this time. (see below)
Deflation in MONEY supplies is reigning now but should be replaced by a 
flood of new money being poured in by Central Banks worldwide, causing 
an eventual rebound in commodities prices. When is hard to say but it 
will come.
I am NOT calling for rebound in stocks. Far from it. Consumer 
contraction will devastate earnings in the months to come. A stock 
rebound is NOT in the cards, however "sucker" rallies will make you 
think so from time to time. Don't fall for it.
I expect more bad news in the weeks to come, a further liquidation in 
the markets and more profits for short sellers.
I would NOT BUY stocks that dont pay dividends at this time and not 
establish any large positions in any "regular" stocks at this time.
The exception being gold/ silver stocks and oil stocks. IF the markets 
continue to get hammered, ALL stocks will be hit AGAIN.

/_*FYI 
*_*People always want to know when I am buying and what. Most of the 
time I refrain from advertising my positions due to  conflict of 
interest, but for MONDAY:
*_*
*_/For MY account I am buying MONDAY  1 %  my portfolio of SLV ( SILVER 
ETF)  .
The recent price of 9 bucks or so has a downside of 5 or so in my opinion
Upside is 20 or more,  so for ME this is sufficient risk/ reward 
scenario for my allocation of this large amount into SLV at this time.
Could it go lower? Absolutely, and if so I will double up at 5 or so 
again. Silver DOES have a downside limit.
I am also doubling up on 5 energy trusts (see dividend payers list) so I 
now will bring back the cost of my original purchase in half.
They are paying HUGE dividends percentage wise and IF they continue to 
do so, I will reap great returns. If they drop further, I will hold them 
as long as they continue to pay me.
This is not a recommendation for anyone to follow my lead. I hold large 
SHORT positions in BEARX and other markets to hedge any losses on these, 
so if you are not hedged, you are at risk. BE FOREWARNED.

I also bought a USO  (OIL)   call  for April  ( a small amount) last 
week as I said I would, as oil downside is 40 worst case ( MY OPINION)  
upside is 150 ( old high) or higher.
For a small amount of capital, the reward could be great.
I hold BEARX and other "contrary" funds that will go UP if the markets 
start down hard again so I am hedged EITHER WAY and I suggest the same 
to clients.
The same then would hold for y'all if you were to ask me.    HEDGE   
HEDGE  HEDGE and dont be a HOG!

_/*
MARKETS:*/_
Negative bias rules with volatility being the name of the game. This 
month is and will still be crazy, driven by NEWS.
Bad news will rock the markets, "ANNOUNCEMENTS by the FEDS will goose 
it. Very dangerous place, this market.
HOLD and HEDGE. Think twice about buying anything.
I would consider still ADDING:      BEARX if you have lots of stocks.    
I would sell any bonds other then TREASURIES. BONDS are debt and all 
debt is toxic.
I would consider still ADDING:    RRPIX for an interest rate hedge and 
hold with T BILL FUNDS like   VIPSX  SHY  TIP  in equal amounts.
Most of your money should be in FDIC  insured bank cds.  Preservation  
is the key right now. DON'T LOSE MONEY. Do not worry too much about the 
return ON your money, but concentrate on the return OF your money.
I would and am adding physical gold and silver. Dont let the drop fool 
you. Its day will come with all this crazy money creation.
Your sign will be a drop in the US dollar suddenly. So far, it is holding.
_/
*Upcoming Show.*/_
PLEDGE DRIVE SHOW THIS THURSDAY     noon to 2 PM.
I have all your email addresses so I know who you are !
Please let us know you value the material and step up Thursday !
2 HOURS of market coverage. No transcripts or CDs will be available for 
this show.  You must listen live or forever miss 2 hours of the greatest 
market coverage you will ever hear.

Will email you all again in the next day or so.
All the best,

MARC

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