[Money-matters] Money Matters Update January 14th 2009

Thu Jan 15 04:10:53 UTC 2009

Marc's Notes:
The markets neutral to positive stance started early January but has not
materialized much since then. Bad retailer news is trumping the headlines.
A slow bleed is now in progress but I tend to think the inauguration week
will give way to a bounce and then the bailout announcement from Obama
should rally the markets unless really dire news keeps flowing. Long term. I
keep saying "it wont be enough". The leveraged is simply too great. Markets
are heading toward a 8000-7900 retest and may bounce from there.
If not, a 7100 retest may materialize. We will see. 

The FEDS say today they need more money for banks. "It wont be enough~!"
But they will throw more of your tax money at this in a vain hope to re
inflate and get the banks "lending " again. Meanwhile GM  took the bailout
money and is now offering zero percent financing again. 
Seems like we've been here before. Will they never learn? Isnt that what got
us here in the first place?  Loaning money to people who can't afford to pay
it back?  Incredible.  And the zero percent financing is on the big SUV's,
the stuff they can't get rid of. More gas guzzlers at zero percent. GREAT.
Ford looks like it now will need some money. Citibank is now saying they may
need more. Ya think?  Considering they have 600 billion of bad loans RIGHT
NOW and trillion or so coming, with a mind blowing 100 trillion or more in
derivative (bets),
 " You ain't seen nuthin' yet" !   (You beginning to believe me now?)

Retailers are hemorrhaging and you can expect to see multiple bankruptcies
in the months to come. Surprisingly, their STOCKS are holding up relatively
well compared to their numbers they will begin to post soon. I am
considering shorting selective retailer right before their earnings AFTER
the inauguration.  HOPE will rein next week with all Obama's checks he is
gearing up to write.
Expect an across the board, all encompassing housing bailout that will
really blow the doors off previous bailouts. MORE FREE MONEY !  Oh boy!
Lenin would be proud.

States and pensions and municipalities and everyone else will have their
hand out when Obama takes office. I had hope for this man but he is
surrounding himself with the same old hacks like Geinther, Clinton and the
rest. Same ol'  Same ol'... career politicians all of them. Expect more of
the same bailout mantra only on a bigger scale. Obama is listening to the
same types of people that got us here, so my hope is fading fast. In fact, I
think he scares me more then all of them economically, seeing as how much
money he is proposing to throw at this thing. A trillion to start, and
that's after the 8 trillion they have already promised. Can you believe the
numbers these guys and girls are throwing around? Somebody is going to pay
for all this and I will let you guess who that is going to be. Both new
taxes and the age old "stealth" tax (inflation) will erode the middle class
into lower middle class and the lower class will likely go into poverty
class. Sad but true.

Once again, I will remind you, the government cannot 'create" jobs. They
don't make anything. So their "creation" is just taking money from the
public by printing it and deploying it thru the government. That is the most
INEFFECIENT use of funds there is. Private deployment of money is the most
efficient, not GOVERNMENT deployment. So instead of helping, in the long run
they will waste natural resources, spend money inefficiently, rampant with
corruption on all levels and you will see government wasting trillions when
we need it the most. Not including the trillion which will be needed for his
grand "National Health Care" policy. With 70 trillion or so already in RED
INK for Medical, Medicare and the prescription drug benefits program, the
"National Health Care" program will dwarf these in cost and send our total
liabilities past 100 trillion in a few short years. "You ain't seen nuthin'
yet !"

Markets:
Negative bias is now in effect with all this bad news but I think next week
we should get a pop. Depending on how long the pop is and how fast he can
sign in new bailout money, it's hard to tell how long the honeymoon will
last, but a honeymoon it will be. Use it to take profits in real estate
stocks (URE) and infrastructure stocks (PKB) if indeed we get profits.
NEWS will be the market moving wind for now. Expect horrendous banking and
real estate news in the weeks to come, as well as retailers. A major housing
company will go belly up soon, maybe 2 or 3 of them. More banks will flop
and more billions we be asked for. 

Holdings:
Preservation of assets is the name of the game. DEFLATION is taking hold and
will be very hard to stop. Prices are dropping across the board taking all
investments except banks CD's and Treasuries down. Hold most of your money
in Bank CDs or our Treasury funds and hedge these with RRPIX, an interest
rate fund, or RYJUX. Treasuries are bubbling (Tomorrows Show! Don't miss it)
therefore interest rates are still headed down. As I said -  DEFLATION. 
The good news is your grocery bill and gas bill is dropping. (Which is why
DBC is dropping). Inflation is waiting in the wings, we just don't know when
he will come out of his hibernation, but he is coming with a vengeance.

Gold and Silver- ADD  for the "grand finale".
Bonds- SELL
Dividend Payers- HOLD  Ok to add energy payers ( see below)
Energy - ADD  Includes Uranium.
Oil- ADD   HOLD   our play is still safe with the Saudis having our back. 
SLV-  Silver ETF   still in the black  HOLD/ ADD  for the grand finale. Hold
only in IRA accounts.
Tanker stocks- Do not Add at this time- Hold  those you have
Contrary funds- Hold  or ADD to hedge your dividend payers.
Foreign Currency funds- ADD
Regular non paying stocks and mutual funds your broker sold you- SELL
Off shore -  Swiss Annuities ADD (Email me for free book)    I am also
looking into another way to move money offshore - Will advise

Upcoming Shows:
Tomorrow at NOON   THURSDAY-   "The Biggest Bubble"      Important show-
must listen.  IMPORTANT.  IMPORTANT  IMPORTANT  SHOW ~!
Out of range of our broadcast?  www.kvmr.org <http://www.kvmr.org/>    press
on LISTEN LIVE

Consult with me?  A few spots left these next 2 weeks, then with surgery and
the pledge show, BOOKED.
Email me quick and Jen will set you up. Those panicking,  now is the time to
see me quickly, but only a few spots are open.

Pledge Show first week of February but I may not make it if in pain from the
operation, so we will see. I may be drugged on that show!

All for now, talk to all of you tomorrow.

All the Best,
Marc

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