[Money-matters] Money Matters Update Feb 4 2009

Thu Feb 5 03:59:58 UTC 2009

Marc's Notes:
Good afternoon to everyone. Thanks for all the emails and offers for rides
and cookies and soup! You are a great bunch and I extend my gratitude to
you.
I am slowly recovering yet still one armed. I am feeling well enough to do
the 2 hour special show for KVMR's pledge drive tomorrow at noon so I look
forward to hearing from all of you.

It is especially important for all of you to pledge to the station as we are
feeling the heat economically as well. (They don't let me handle their money
there as there isn't enough left over to "place" anywhere). So in order to
stay informed and allow us to keep giving you this timely information, we
need each and everyone one of you on this list to at least give something!
More on this at the end of this update.

EC is typing for me today so lets get to it.

If you read Sept-Oct- Nov.  Money Updates you will note I mentioned
repeatedly unemployment and staggering retail sales would trump the
headlines in the new year and we are seeing just that.

Frankly, the figures are as bad as I said they would be and miserable is an
understatement. The economy is shedding jobs like old scales on a snake and
it is accelerating.
Spiral begets spiral. Expect unemployment to accelerate in the coming
months. The banking crisis is intensifying also as I said it would.
Unemployment forces more people out of the  working ranks and their homes go
on the block to add to the supply.
Remember, as long as housing continues to slide, banks losses will
accelerate and even MORE money will be needed by them.  A "bad" bank is now
being mentioned as we thought it would be, it will be a  "dumping" ground
for all this bad debt. 
The problem here is that establishing a "bad" bank would force them to value
all this bad debt and putting a value on it would show that most of the
banks are indeed insolvent now. It would also show that the US GOVT would
have to "eat" about 5 trillion or more of this toxic debt, and world
investors would not take this amount of money creation lightly. The FEDS are
already having a hard time selling their IOU'S, again, just like we said
they would. 
Interest rates are spiking and in the last auction, an "anonymous" buyer
stepped up to take a large chunk of the Treasuries that were not moving. Any
guess as to who the "anonymous" buyer was?  
Uncle Sam in costume, that's who. Will the US be able to keep selling its
debt? It better!
We are going to need TRILLIONS to pay for all this stuff.
I mean, look at all the bailouts being asked for:
Credits for new home buyers, car buyers, dairy subsidies, insurers (the next
huge bailout) pension plans (another bailout coming), more banks, health
companies, cities, states, auto companies... the list is endless. Everyone
has their hand out, a product of the first bailout. Now the gates are open
and there is no stopping it. They have no idea what they have started. 
Meanwhile Congress is bickering again. Everyone seems to agree we need to
spend trillions but no one agrees on how to spend it. You know how I feel
about it. You cant solve a debt problem by creating more debt. Keep in mind,
when the government spends money, much of it is wasted on bureaucracy. So at
a time when we need it most, we will be wasting such large amounts. In the
end, it "wont be enough" and we will be right back where we started but now
what much deeper in debt. OH the wasteful and irony of it all. It is heart
wrenching for me to witness it.
Our children will be inheriting a debt that will never be paid. Just who ARE
WE to encumber a generation or three with all OUR debt without them having
any say in the matter. It is shameful. All the politicians know is to try
and "get the banks lending" again, get us deeper in debt and "create jobs".
PLEAAAAASSE!  "create jobs"? They cannot "create" jobs.
You simply cannot "create" jobs. You are simply taking money from those who
earned it and giving to those who didn't. It is called wealth
redistribution, otherwise known as "theft".

Markets:
Update- neutral to negative. The Obama bounce is yet to materialize but I
still expect it, albeit a small one possibly.
The market looks very anemic and has little resiliency to it. The delay in
getting the Obama stimulus package is setting up to be a disappointment.
Expect movement to increase in the weeks to come.

Holdings:
Gold is moving up slowly. Our SLV trade is moving nicely, up about 25 %
since we bought in. HOLD  ditto for gold.
Oil- Flat    HOLD   ADD
Dividend Payers -  HOLD   ADD
Treasuries - ADD for now.
RRPIX to hedge the treasuries- Rising nicely   ADD  HOLD
Swiss Annuities- ADD
Foreign Currency funds - ADD  slowly rising
Contrary funds- ADD for protection against possible market slide.
Physical gold and silver- Getting harder to get- ADD if you can get your
hands on it. SELLING ?   call me.
Obama plays-  Dead in the water waiting for his announcement- ADD  (gamblers
only)
Bank CD's- ADD
Retailer shorts-   ADD
Banks, housing stocks - toss up. 

Tomorrows show:
Noon to 2 pm- No transcripts will be given nor cds. 
You must listen live  -   2 hour special covering all market action.
Pledge show- Please step up and pledge- I have all your emails!   Please
support!    
Premiums:
Cds, silver coins (yes I have some!) Consults, past shows, portfolios, all
are up for grabs, 
Future show subscriptions for those who cant listen live to our shows, and
"family and friends" consult where you can SPLIT IT with someone, meet with
me and save big dollars. This is NEW and only offered on the show live.

Noon to 2 pm.

All for now, very busy and hurting.
Talk to all of you tomorrow.
All the best,
Marc

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