[Money-matters] Money Update Oct 25 2008

Sat Oct 25 18:35:12 UTC 2008

*/_Marcs' Notes:_/*
Well, at least a total meltdown did not occur Friday. The FEDS were in 
buying from the get go as they saw what every trader saw Friday morning 
before the open.
A LIMIT DOWN market.
This would have been another horrible day, not just a bad one, if the 
FEDS had not propped it all day.  As a result, instead of a quick death, 
we are destined to a "death by a thousand cuts".
Our contrary funds like BEARX are up big time percentage wise since last 
week. Anyone shorting (betting on a FALLING price) made a killing this 
week and the past 2 weeks.
Our treasury funds help up fine, some actually moving up. Quite an 
accomplishment in this market.

Here is what is interesting:

1) The markets continue to look sicker and sicker with each passing day. 
This will lead to a massive sell off soon, but rallies orchestrated by 
the FEDS will "fake" out the
"buy and hold for the long term" lemmings. Don't be one of them. An all 
out collapse is possible.

2)  The US dollar is still remarkably holding up -That's the only good 
news. A collapsing dollar will CRUSH everyone not holding gold or silver 
or money offshore. For now, I suspect the US dollar will hold up, long 
term I am not so confident.

3) Oil was down but SOME of our energy dividend payers (at least some of 
them) moved UP today, showing a "tangible" intrinsic value that may 
continue. This is why I bought some dividend payers on Monday. They 
COULD continue down in a major sell off, but the bump UP today could be 
a sign the US dollar may now start down and investors MAY start fleeing 
to tangibles, like companies that own energy in the ground. We will see.

4) Gold moved UP today in this otherwise massive sell off!  The 
"intrinsic" value we may be seeing in the energy stocks above may also 
be confirming in this MOVE UP in gold.
As I said, eventually investors will flock to the metals as everything 
else "paper" tanks.  Remember, the PHYSICAL gold and silver market is 
without supply. (You cant get coins easily).
This is contradicted in the paper market (Official gold price). This 
reeks of manipulation when this type of dichotomy exists. When the paper 
market implodes due to the contradictions in the actual supply of 
physical metal, gold stocks and gold should blast off!  That is why we 
continue to buy it. Today was an encouraging sign, the one we may have 
been waiting for. We will see. (Remember, you have to look for the 
"signs" of movements to come, and small indications of the markets 
internal gyrations, albeit slight. They dont make themselves known to 
everyone tramping around in the corn field, only to those who are really 
looking for clues). It may be tomorrow or next year when gold and silver 
explode to the upside. Since we cant tell WHEN, we buy now for that day.

5) The YEN is moving UP quite nicely as the "carry trade" we talked 
about is unwinding. The move in the YEN helps offset your losses in FXA 
and FXC and FXE somewhat, which is why I asked you to hold the YEN with 
the others. The others are still paying you a dividend to help out a 
declining price and that's a good thing.

6) Home sales increased in the latest period spurred on by falling 
prices, most sales being foreclosures. They would like you to believe 
this was good news. Fire sales at lower prices is not a sign of a GOOD 
market but a sign of a BAD one getting worse. DA!!    With the latest 
stock market plunges, buyers will be even more scared and that will show 
up in about 6 month or so on the real estate figures.

RESULT?  Expect FEB, MARCH, APRIL 2009  _/real estate sales figures/_ to 
be DISMAL, reflecting an _/acceleration /_of the real estate plunge.

_NOTE: The "real" cause this bubble._

Affirmative housing from the left and the socialistic wings of our 
society pushed for home ownership for "everyone". The Democrats pushed 
it, the Republicans didn't stop it. They are both equally responsible.

FHA and ACORN and every other socialistic, bleeding heart group insisted 
everyone have the "joys" of home ownership. Selling homes to people that 
couldn't afford them, making anyone who protested this bad practice feel 
like a bloody racist. So the "right" crumpled under pressure from the 
"left" and allowed this shenanigan to morph into the largest asset 
bubble in history, threatening our very way of life and our system itself.

It's not CAPITALISM that failed us folks, it's the SOCIALISM forced upon 
it that caused this problem. Capitalism WORKS and would have worked if 
the "left" hadn't messed with it, establishing low income programs, down 
payment assistance, and minority quotas for banks. The administration 
SHOULD have held true to its values and not allowed this socialistic 
"assistance" to permeate the housing industry. But the "right" is not 
"right" anymore, they are ALL left. And the result of "left" policies is 
what you are seeing now.

Anyone doubt that socialism doesn't work? You now have your proof. And 
with the elections of EITHER party, both will implement MORE SOCIALISM 
to try and solve a SOCIALISTIC problem. We never seem to learn from history.

Capitalism, allowed to function, would have fairly priced risk and these 
low income loans would never have been made in the first place. And the 
problem would never have existed.

_NOTE: On a dividend payer._
Our Super dividend payer  IFN -  India fund just paid its 6.00 / share 
dividend. Those holding it in your Dividend Payers List, check your 
balances today. You have a big check in there you can spend!

Next week will be ANOTHER critical week. (Are you getting a little 
fatigued with all this? So am I.)
But fortune favors the well prepared.
If you still own a basket of mutuals, in my opinion, YOU ARE AT GRAVE 
RISK. (is there any other kind?).
I know, I know, you still think this will all "work out" and you will 
hold thru the long term.   Ok.. See you on the other side.
Take my word for it. YOU WILL SELL!
When you are down 70 or 80 %   YOU WILL SELL..  and you will be doing so 
with everyone else.

So one more time:
HEDGE  HEDGE HEDGE     Get contrary funds, keep most your money in FDIC 
accounts or a T BILL or the   T BILL FUND mix we list in our DREAM 
PORTFOLIO or the SUPER HIGH DIVIDEND PAYERS LIST. 
BEARX is up almost 30 % from our buy in price. ( your buy in price will 
be different then mine, but everyone's buy in is in the green as of today).

HOLD:   DBC, CGMFX   OBCHX  OIH  nd the other mutuals we have on our 
list. They are way down but should be only a small part of your assets.
DBC and the rest should rebound with the inflation that is coming due to 
all this money they are giving away but it may have to get thru this 
massive correction. You can add more in small amounts to 'average" down 
like I am doing over the next 3 months or so.

Pledge drive was a great success with over $22,000.00 raised.
THANK YOU ALL WHO PARTICIPATED.

All for now,
Marc

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