[Money-matters] Money Update November 18

Wed Nov 19 03:04:57 UTC 2008

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices fell in four out of every five U.S.
cities in the third quarter, a record spurred by distressed foreclosure
sales across the country. 
The median price of a U.S. home declined 9 percent from a year earlier and
sales of properties with mortgages in default accounted for at least a third
of all transactions, the Chicago- based  <http://www.realtor.org> National
Association of Realtors said today. Prices fell in 120 U.S. metropolitan
areas, rose in 28 and were unchanged in four, the biggest share of declines
in data going back to 1979. 

Marc's Notes:
Markets rebounded a tad today. Pretty much a technical bounce, nothing more.
Fundamentals remain terrible. Gold is holding up rather well compared to the
Dow.
Interest rates are steady so for now the US dollar seems safe. Banks
continue to reel and housing is in free fall. New home sales are flat out
terrible with existing sales better due to the amount of foreclosures being
bought. Unfortunately the inventory is building up and now stands a 11 month
back log. Normal is about 3 or so. This housing inventory must be sold off
before house prices stabilize. These foreclosures will ADD to the inventory,
and although interest rates are historically good at around 6 %, you now
have to qualify. (which is the way is it supposed to be).  With retail in
free fall and the consumer losing his job, I see no good news in the months
ahead for any sort of rebound. Look for more subprime fall out. Citibank is
huge but closing in on the edge of the cliff. I cant say for sure but this
failure, if it occurs, will be devastating to the market. It still has a way
to go so we shall see.
The 3 auto makers went in front of Congress today to go thru the charade of
asking and groveling for money. THEY WILL GET THE MONEY, don't kid yourself.
All this meeting stuff is just posturing for us. You will see a bailout
under the guise of a loan. This is just dead money thrown in a hole and like
AIG, they will be back for more in 6 months or sooner.
This is really getting to be ridiculous all this money going out. 
A "stimulus" plan is sure to come, maybe before Xmas. Congress knows
retailers are DEAD this holiday, so is the consumer. As I said, there is
money in the corner shorting retailers, go over and pick it up. Every single
short of retailers I have has at least doubled within days. There is MORE
MONEY to be made as incredible as that seems. GO GET IT!

BEARX our contrary fund is up about 20 % in the last month- That's why we
hold it. Many portfolios I have been seeing are down as much as 40 %. This
was unnecessary as we have been saying to hedge ( protect ) your stocks and
mutual's with this fund. So those losing money- what are you waiting for?
You still don't believe me? Hummmmm...
You can lead a horse to water but.............

Anyway, I will do the DIVIDEND PAYER stocks show this Thursday at noon,
barring any major market melt down, which by the way is entirely possible~!

Itchin to trade? 

USO  OIL   downside 50 %    upside  300 % or more     SLV  downside 50 %
Upside 1000 % or more ( my opinion) for a long term trade.
PFE PFIZER  paying about 8 %    B of A  BAC  paying about 8 %    Not bad for
a blue chip      PFE definitely aint going away and I don't THINK B of A
will, so for long term holds, these might not be bad for your kids long term
accounts or those with long time frames. Keep in mind, more downside may be
in play so tread lightly on anything you buy.
CGMFX continues its slide. As I said, I now disagree with the manager's
positions and selling. My hunch appears to be right as the fund continues to
slide.
Uranium is alive!    Hoorah     We will see. URPTF is moving up, up 15 %
since we put out that I was buying it at the wiped out price of 4 (down from
11 where we started looking at it).
I averaged down and bought a ton around 4 or so to offset my buy at 11. (It
doubled in 07 but I didn't sell). Eventually this will be a big winner as
oil is getting scarcer, not more plentiful.

UNWPX    down from my buy in at around 11. Pays a healthy dividend soon.
This is a precious metals fund. When the dollars burns, this fund should
shine. 
Remember: Invest with sound ideologies and wait for them to pan out. Some
pan out quickly, others take time. But above all, most of your money for now
should be IN THE BANK or short term treasury funds. I hate for people to
lose money.
NOTE: STAY AWAY FROM BONDS.  How many times to I have to say it.

All for now
Another update tomorrow

All the best 
Marc

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