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<title>:Money Matters Newsletter: Marc's take on our old favorite Real Estate.
Update February 15, 2011</title>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> Money Management
Radio [mailto:marc@moneymanagementradio.com] <br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, February 15, 2011
7:23 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> client<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [Money Matters
Newsletter] Marc's take on our old favorite Real Estate. Update February 15,
2011</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
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<h1><span class=newsletter-name><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Money Matters
Newsletter: </span></font></span><span class=issue-title><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Marc's take on our old favorite Real Estate. Update February 15,
2011</span></font></span><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></font></h1>
<p><b><i><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold;font-style:italic'>More on
Housing:</span></font></i></b><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'><br>
For 7 years now since I started Money Matters I have focused on real estate
as the crux of the 2008 crisis that was to come. When I forecasted housing
would crash by at least 40 % and that the banking system would implode, many
realtors, scholars, “investors”, loudmouths, “know it alls”, and everyone one
that had an opinion told me I was crazy. <br>
<br>
“They aint making any more real estate” I was told. “People will always want
to live here” said another, and “real estate always goes up” chimed a third.
Not versed in economics nor history they were, so I kept my opinion on “their
opinion” muted. <br>
<br>
Even the popular media and your Government said the following:<br>
<br>
January 2005 “Creative financing can give poor- credit buyers the home
of their dreams”. Associated Press<br>
<br>
March 2005 “There is a new paradigm in real estate in which
prices will rise indefinitely”. CBS News<br>
<br>
June 2005 “Home Sweet Home” cover page. Time Magazine<br>
<br>
2005 thru 2007 and too many other quotes to list here but basically the FEDS
said:<br>
“We have never had decreasing home prices in the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> and
housing will not affect the economy”. Ben Bernanke – Federal Reserve Chairman<br>
<br>
September 2006 “It seems the housing sector has bottomed out”.
Market Watch<br>
<br>
October 2006 “The worst is over”. Alan Greenspan- Federal Reserve
Chairman<br>
<br>
July 2007 “Subprime problems are contained” <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> investment
banking statement and Hank Paulson- Treasury Secretary<br>
<br>
October 2009 “The home buyer credit has helped shore up the economy and
stabilized housing”. Bloomberg <br>
<br>
Add to these over 100 “official” denials from <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:State> to the Federal Reserve to
realtor groups to award winning “economists’ and analysts and you would have
to call my predictions crazy at the time.<br>
<br>
Yet we all know what happened. CBS and ABC sends a TV film crew here to
little old <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Nevada</st1:PlaceName>
<st1:PlaceType w:st="on">City</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> to interview this
“nut” on a small community radio station called KVMR.<br>
<br>
Then as housing “slowed” its descent, and the home buyer credit boosted
sales, I was called a cashew once more by people “in the know”. They told me
housing had stabilized. They “want in” now that prices have dropped. “Prices
have bottomed Marc!”<br>
<br>
Through out the winter of 2009 I warned when the home credit expired housing
would plummet again in the summer. All those foreclosure “deals” people bought
at auctions in 2009 and 2010 wouldn’t look so “good” when housing cratered
again. When July arrived with the expired credit, house sales fell off the
cliff with a record low followed by a second record low the following month. <br>
<br>
And now again for months I have tolerated more folks telling me its “time to
buy!”.<br>
<br>
And so to all those people “knew better”. I say:<br>
<br>
Uh huh. <br>
<br>
There’s an old saying: “Stick with who brought you to the dance”.<br>
<br>
So after all this, guess what’s just out from real estate expert surveyor
Zillow.com.<br>
<br>
According to their most recent quarterly survey, the percentage of US homes
underwater (homeowners owing more then their home is worth) has soared from
20 % in August 2010 to OVER 27 % today! <br>
Adding insult to injury, home prices according to the Case-Shiller index
continue to fall while foreclosures rose to a new ALL TIME RECORD!
(Associated Press February 10, 2011).<br>
<br>
Says “Business Insider” in its recent article this week; <br>
“The US housing market is dying. As statistic after statistic continues to
roll in, the reality of what it happening is becoming very difficult to
deny”.<br>
<br>
Those that have told me housing is coming back are talking from hope, not
facts. <br>
<br>
Here are the facts;<br>
<br>
Loans are harder to get now then in 2007 when housing was already starting to
fall.<br>
Unemployment is twice as bad then it was 5 years ago.<br>
House prices are falling making more homeowners under water and giving them
cause to default.<br>
Higher foreclosure rates are making supplies even higher.<br>
Banks are only actually foreclosing on a portion on their bad loans so they:<br>
1) Don’t have to write the loss off if they keep the house
in limbo and let the deadbeat homeowner stay rent free.<br>
2) Keeping foreclosures to a minimum doesn’t add as many
houses to the glut already on the market so the house pile up vacant to be
sold sometime later, diluting the supply for years to come. <br>
<br>
The Subprime “wave” of loans we first saw 07,08 and 09 was only the FIRST
wave of many more WAVES to come. Think Tsunami waves crashing into a beach
head. There are 5 more types of loan waves coming toward us that are about to
further implode this already devastated housing market. <br>
<br>
‘ Alt- A” loans are moderate risk loans that have their maximum default
window now thru 2012. (A lot of these loans had 5 year teaser rates which now
are resetting).<br>
<br>
Prime loans are good borrowers but now these folks are “strategically
defaulting” due to crashing home prices. (underwater loans).<br>
<br>
Jumbo loans were needed during the last part of the boom to pay for the
higher home prices. Jumbos are high balance loans typically totalling 500K or
more. More jumbos were needed toward the END of the boom, meaning they will
be the last to reset. (2011 thru 2014 and beyond).<br>
<br>
ARM (Adjustable rate mortgages) loans ran throughout the boom and they are
resetting as they have been for 3 years now: fast, furious and
ongoing.<br>
<br>
Commercial real estate typically has longer leases. This “wave” encompasses
literally trillions of dollars worth of value and as the economy falters, more
businesses go under leaving vacant buildings. Just look around your town and
see the ever growing “for lease’ signs.<br>
<br>
Strategic defaults will accelerate as house values fall further. These people
can afford to pay their mortgage but elect not to as the house is worth less
then what they owe. As house prices continue down (as they are now) more
people will elect to take this way out and stop paying, adding insult AND
injury to an already dire home market.<br>
<br>
Historic precedent dictates money never returns to the asset bubble meaning
once a bubble pops, money flees to “another asset”. Money will not return to
housing historically for another 8 to 17 years. (money hasn’t returned to
DOTCOM in 11 years !)<br>
<br>
When bubbles pop, historic precedent says prices will return to and FALL
BELOW the starting point as the pendulum swings back to over correct. Since
the housing bubble started roughly about 2002 or so, house price must
eventually return to levels BELOW those of 2002, and probably more in line
with prices on or about the mid 1990’s meaning we have a lot farther to go….
down.<br>
<br>
<br>
With all these “problems” facing the housing market, you would be hard
pressed to convince ME housing is coming back anytime soon, and as I warned
last year to potential home buyer: WAIT. <br>
I told them “If you buy now, the $8,000 credit you got will be all but
eaten up in falling home value” , and <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address
w:st="on">WHA LA.</st1:address></st1:Street> <br>
<br>
As I told you. House price continue down. And as I warned my real estate
friends, stockpile your money. Don’t buy any rentals. Money will get harder
to come by and prices have farther to go.<br>
<br>
Now I will say it again. The ONLY thing I can see that would make house
prices rebound is if Starbucks coffee goes to 6 bucks. If the FEDS print
enough money, even houses will finally catch a bid reflecting only inflation,
but for now, its DOWN, DOWN DOWN. <br>
<br>
And if you think the FEDS can bail us out again, remember that deficits are
beginning to be scorned, bailouts frowned upon. Yes, they COULD and I think
THEY WILL initiate another home bailout with the final solution being
reducing home mortgage balances carte blanch, but that bailout will be hard
to pass and I don’t want to base my families future on what somebody else
might or might not do. <br>
<br>
For all my real estate friends out there, I am not trashing your business,
but on the contrary, warning you to stash your cash and save your money.
Lower prices mean more sales eventually but don’t believe what your
association (The National Association of Realtors) tells you. Remember they
had to fire your last economist David Lereah because he called it wrong so
many times. They replaced him with Lawrence Yun, and he seems to be drinking
off the same cup David did. <br>
<br>
Stick with those who GOT IT RIGHT. <br>
<br>
My prediction? <br>
<br>
Down and down. Foreclosures and short sales for years. Lower prices and
distressed properties everywhere. Stubborn sellers and even more stubborn
buyers. Hard to get loans and under value appraisals. Many fall through
escrows and even more heartache. Dire but the facts dictate no other outcome.<br>
<br>
Those thinking otherwise are driving on hope only, and fumes at that.<br>
<br>
All for now,<br>
Marc <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Money Matters Airs This Thursday at noon PST
on KVMR FM. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Have dinner with me at my Margarita Dinner.
Email me. Cost is minimal for you and one other! Or come alone and save even
more! <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p><b><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold'>Do Not Reply to newsletter
messages directly.</span></font></b><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Direct all questions or comments to <a
href="mailto:Moneymatters@kvmr.org">Moneymatters@kvmr.org</a>. <br>
All comments or questions must be less then 3 sentences in length and must
not contain any links or articles. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>You can access past updates at: <a
href="http://www.moneymanagementradio.com">http://www.moneymanagementradio.com</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><b><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold'>Disclaimer:</span></font></b><font
size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>The views expressed here are opinions only.
This update does not represent KFOK, KZFR or KVMR FM radios in anyway and
should not be construed as an extension of either station. It is a private
email subscription and is produced by Marc Cuniberti and does not reflect the
views or opinions of the stations, their management, underwriters or members.
All issues regarding this email should be sent to Marc Cuniberti and/or his
agents. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>This article is strictly for informational
purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange, buy or sell any
precious metal products, commodities, securities, stocks, warrants, options
or other financial instruments. Marc Cuniberti, author of this article, does
not accept culpability for losses and/or damages arising from the use of this
publication or any information contained herein. You are responsible for your
investing. Perform due diligence on any firm you plan to send money to. Mr.
Cuniberti makes no claim as to the validity or soundness of any firm or
institution mentioned herein or on any of his publications or shows.
Investing involves risk. You can lose money. Please order up the prospectus
on any and all securities you may be planning to buy and do your own research
before investing. Mr. Cuniberti may or may not hold the securities listed.
Some companies mentioned or exhibiting advertisements or banners on Money
Management Radio material may offer a consideration for their advertising
space and/or referrals from such promotions. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>If you wish to send Mr. Cuniberti an email,
please keep your emails to less then 3 sentences and do not ask about
specific holdings you may hold nor ask him to comment on YOUR specific
situation. You may submit general market questions or concerns. He answers
EVERY email sent to him within the confines of these rules. Someone will
respond to your email regardless of what it contains so you will know we
received it. We care about your participation in Money Management Radio and
Money Matters. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>If you like what you hear on Money Matters,
check out what else is happening on your community radio station, KVMR, on
Facebook.com. You'll be kept up to date on special programming, events,
discussion opportunities, and lots more. Go to Facebook and type KVMR in the search
bar. You can become a fan of MONEY MATTERS on Facebook by going to: <a
href="http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?ref=name&id=1602502823#/pages/Money"
title="Facebook Fan Club"></a><a
href="http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?ref=name&id=1602502823#/pages/Money"
title="Facebook Fan Club"></a><u>http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?ref=name&id=1602502823#/pages/Money
</u><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Produced and Hosted by Marc Cuniberti <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Web Site: <a
href="http://www.moneymanagementradio.com">http://www.moneymanagementradio.com</a><br>
Money Management Radio and Money Matters is the sole property of Marc
Cuniberti and all rights are reserved.<br>
"Money Matters" and "Your Money Matters" is aired
throughout <st1:place w:st="on">Northern California</st1:place> and the State
Capitol. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Marc and Money Matters has been featured on
NBC and ABC television and on various news programs and documentaries.<br>
<st1:place w:st="on">Northern California</st1:place>'s # 1
"alternative" economic show.<br>
"Know the Truth and the Truth Shall Set You Free" John 8:32<br>
Carried on bandwidths: 89.5 105.1 95.1 103.7 90.1 FM Radios throughout <st1:place
w:st="on">Northern California</st1:place> and the State Capitol.<br>
Worldwide on the web at <a href="http://WWW.KVMR.ORG">KVMR,</a> <a
href="http://kzfr.org/" target="_blank" title="KZFR Radio">KZFR</a> and on <a
href="http://KFOK.org">KFOK</a> FM RADIOS <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Where I buy some of my gold and silver: What
I call “Possession Gold”. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Blanchard and Company, Inc.<br>
<st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on">P.O. Box</st1:Street> 61740</st1:address><br>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:place></st1:City>, La
70161-1740<br>
Direct toll free number: (888) 727-7537<br>
Rick Baugnon<br>
<br>
I have probably purchased the most ounces of gold and silver from Blanchard.
Not only do they sell regular coins and bars, they are the only contact on
this e-letter that also can provide you with graded coins and collectible
coins. Although I usually recommend only standard coins, I do own
collectibles as they may help against a confiscation scenario and we need to
be prepared for everything. Please call Rick Baugnon and tell them you are a
Money Matters Listener and he will give you special consideration and he
knows my preferences. Use his direct line above. Rick and I have discussed
Money Matters needs and he knows what to provide.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Monex Deposit David Feldberg x 2216<br>
<st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on">4910 Birch St.</st1:Street>, <st1:City
w:st="on">Newport Beach</st1:City></st1:address> Ca 92660<br>
1 (800) 949 4653 (GOLD) ext 2216 You may refer to Marc Cuniberti and Money
Matters and David will know what Marc recommends. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Take delivery and store in a safe place. You
may have 25 % of this amount in silver and the remaining 75% in gold. I
usually buy only generic 1 ounce rounds or ounce bars, no collectibles. You
may buy any 99 % pure gold or silver assets but pay no more then a few
percentage points over spot. Again, buy NO Collectibles, No Margin account,
No Commodity accounts. Take delivery of standard coins only. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:black'>I usually buy Gold Eagles, Buffalos,
Kruggerands, Silver Maples. Gold Pandas Generic Rounds. Peace Dollars or
Morgans. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:7.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Follow Marc and Money
Matters on <a
href="http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=225256048565&topic=11908#/pages/Money-Matters/225256048565">Facebook</a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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